And the Oscars will go to...

Just hours to go until the winners are unveiled, so it's only right that I now put forth my own thoughts on who will win in the big categories. In the event that I get these spectacularly wrong, you can expect another post tomorrow listing all my excuses. Or alternatively I'll just go back and edit this post to make it look like I had them right all along and hope that nobody looked at it first.

BEST FILM: A while back I'd have said that the most likely to cause an upset would be GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK. Now, however, it seems that CRASH is enjoying a last minute burst of popularity so that could be the place to put your money if you fancy a flutter. However, the winner will be BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN.

BEST DIRECTOR: The late surge from CRASH will not, I believe, be enough to see Paul Haggis scoop the award so the most likely contender for an upset here would be George Clooney. Aside from the fact that he's made a cracking job of it, he does have a lot of friends in the Academy which could swing the vote in his favour. I think it's not outwith the realms of possibility that he could win this award, maybe even splitting the top two awards between two different films (this last happened in 2002). But I don't think this will happen and Ang Lee will walk off with this one.

BEST ACTOR: Heath Ledger has the BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN popularity on his side but given that he didn't pick up anything at the other major ceremonies it seems unlikely that he'll cause an upset here either. Joaquin Phoenix received many plaudits and a Golden Globe but I don't think he'll be following in Jamie Foxx's footsteps - this award will go to Philip Seymour Hoffman.

BEST ACTRESS: No point in even discussing this one. Reece Witherspoon wins.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: This one's a little tougher. Will it be a consolation prize to a film that isn't going to win much else, or will it go to the big film that's going to scoop everything? If it's the latter then Michelle Williams , like Heath Ledger, has the BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN phenomenon on her side. The former, however, could well see Catherine Keener scoop one for CAPOTE - but I'm shirking them both. Rachel Weisz is my tip in this category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: This is a three-horse race. Gyllenhaal could be a contender for the very reasons I mentioned in the Supporting Actress category; Giamatti is a favourite not just as a consolation prize for CINDERELLA MAN but also due to his being snubbed for SIDEWAYS and AMERICAN SPLENDOUR; and Clooney has a variety of reasons on his side. For one, SYRIANA isn't nominated for much else; secondly, as mentioned already, he's popular within the community; and finally, he's looking unlikely to get either of the big awards for GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK so this could be the Academy's consolation prize. On top of all that, he put on a lot of weight for the role and Hollywood loves people making themselves ugly. Charlize Theron was made when she turned herself from a stunning beauty to a pasty-faced boiler for MONSTER; Nicole Kidman had amassed a respectable body of work but it wasn't until someone slapped a prosthetic conk on her that she found herself on stage at the Kodak, weeping her ginger head off. So I think I'm going to go for George Clooney.

That's all the major categories but here's a few other predictions that I'll throw out anyway.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: After the fuss over which country it was from (Palestine or the Palestinian territories) I don't think we'll be seeing PARADISE NOW winning. Since I enjoyed it when it screened at Edinburgh last summer and it's picked up a lot of good reviews, I'm going to suggest South Africa's TSOTSI for this one.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Britain's turn to win something. With the other two being too weird for the Academy, stand up WALLACE AND GROMIT: CURSE OF THE WERERABBIT.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: This one could be a consolation prize for any of four nominations, so I'm going to say none of them. Let's just include this one with the predicted BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN triumph.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: I think this would be nice if it went to SYRIANA or perhaps, as might well happen due to the success in the big categories of BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, it will be Clooney's consolation prize for GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK. I think it will be neither and Paul Haggis will collect it for CRASH.

BEST MUSIC (SCORE): Outside bet is John Williams for MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA, but I'm thinking more along the lines of BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN again.

BEST MUSIC (SONG): I don't know any of these songs. Let's just take a guess and say "In the Deep" from CRASH.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: It looks like MARCH OF THE PENGUINS is as certain to win this one as BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN is to win Best Film. So I'm going to be different just for the sake of it and predict a win for the well-received MURDERBALL.

There are plenty of other more technical categories but I can't be bothered writing about them.

My final prediction is that the Lifetime Achievement Award will go to Robert Altman. Yes, I know it's already announced. I just wanted to include it anyway so that my ratio for successful predictions is slightly increased.