Oscars 2008: Stupid Predictions (the rest)
In light of my other stupid predictions, I decided I was going to throw out a few guesses for the major categories to finish it (for now at least). Well it just so happens that today I read on the BBC website that award season has kicked off proper with the announcement of the winners of the NBR's big gongs.
The prediction that I was going to make - that three films leading the field would be ATONEMENT, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN and THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD - seems to have been backed up by these awards, with NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN scooping the best film award.
Not that I had any basis for knowing that - the film hasn't opened here yet - but all the buzz is that this is the Coen brothers' best film in a long time and that the cast make a remarkable account of themselves too (the award for the ensemble cast also went to the same film).
The decision to award the best foreign film title to THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY tells us nothing really. Not only have I not seen it, it's not been put forward for Oscar shortlisting anyway, so it won't be winning that one. Their top five foreign films also included the ineligible THE BAND'S VISIT and LUST, CAUTION, but at the same time included both 4 MONTHS, 3 WEEKS AND 2 DAYS and THE COUNTERFEITERS, both of which I mentioned in my last blog entry.
The victory of BODY OF WAR seems to give that film an edge in the documentary arena, but I'm pleased to report that NANKING was in the top five (so at least one of my predictions carries some weight), as was the deserving-but-ignored-by-Oscar IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON.
Two of the best films of the year, ONCE and AWAY FROM HER, featured in the NBR's list of top independent films. I don't see the former appearing in big categories at the Oscars but it might be an outside bet in the song category. AWAY FROM HER, on the other hand, would be good to see in the director category (actress Sarah Polley's directorial debut is superb) but it seems unlikely; it will, however, be nominated in the actress category at the Oscars. I mean it. If not, the world is insane.
You see, way back near the beginning of the year I saw AWAY FROM HER and have been tipping it ever since. Not only is it a great film, it's a great performance in the lead role by Julie Christie as a woman who sees her happy marriage break up when she starts going senile. I am slightly biased because I worship Julie Christie (or The Greatest Actress in the History of the World, to use her full title) but it will still be an outrage if anyone else wins, particularly since it hasn't been a particularly strong year for female leading roles. I think Keira Knightley will get a nod off the back of ATONEMENT's success, but she's no Julie Christie.
There were breakthrough acting awards for JUNO and INTO THE WILD (former hasn't been released here yet; the latter I managed to miss), and Amy Ryan (supporting actress) and Ben Affleck (debut director) got awards for GONE BABY GONE. Sadly I can't comment on this one as, despite great reviews, the UK release has been indefinitely shelved because of similarities to a real-life news story which I'm not going to discuss here. If you've seen a TV or newspaper within the last six months you know what I'm talking about. I would expect all of these films to at least merit nominations at the Oscars.
Other supporting actress nominations could go to the ATONEMENT gang, by which I mean the three actresses that played the same character. Saoirse Ronan's the most deserving but Vanessa Redgrave seems more likely.
The supporting actor award went to Casey Affleck for his brilliant performance in that Jesse James film (the title's too long for me to keep typing it) and, regardless of who else puts in a decent performance this year, he has this one sewn up already. To be honest, I'd be very surprised if a single awards ceremony doesn't honour him. Dead-cert winner.
The best actor award went to George Clooney for the titular role in MICHAEL CLAYTON, another film I managed to miss, but I don't think he'll be collecting the big one in February. He's definitely one of the more likely candidates, but I think he'll have to see off Tommy Lee Jones (for either NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN or IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH, neither of which I've seen, so I'm continuing the stupid prediction theme) or else will find himself up against his friend Brad Pitt who put in one of his best performances in that Jesse James film. Outside bet for a nomination is Emile Hirsch for the aforementioned INTO THE WILD, while it would also be nice to see Gordon Pinsent get a nod for his role opposite Julie Christie in AWAY FROM HER.
Let's see, what have I not mentioned yet... RATATOUILLE picked up best animated feature, not much of a surprise. Adapted screenplay, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN - no surprise (except maybe ATONEMENT had a shout). Original screenplay? No idea. Despite the nods towards JUNO and LARS AND THE REAL GIRL courtesy of the NBR, I think most of the best films I've seen this year have fallen into the adapted category.
Finally, Tim Burton picked up best director for SWEENEY TODD - not seen it, but can't believe he's getting an Oscar having seen some of the films he's not won it for already. Also, I've not forgiven him for PLANET OF THE APES.
No, the director Oscar will go to either Joe Wright (ATONEMENT) or Andrew Dominik (that Jesse James film). I'd have suggested NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN normally too, but I gather the Oscars don't award co-directed films in this category (if memory serves me correctly).
Whatever happens, only three things matter come Oscar night: it's enjoyable, I make a profit at the bookies and Julie Christie gets another award. Anything less is unacceptable!
(I'd close by saying that normal service will be resumed, but as soon as another awards show comes along I'll probably write again, changing my mind on everything.)
The prediction that I was going to make - that three films leading the field would be ATONEMENT, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN and THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD - seems to have been backed up by these awards, with NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN scooping the best film award.
Not that I had any basis for knowing that - the film hasn't opened here yet - but all the buzz is that this is the Coen brothers' best film in a long time and that the cast make a remarkable account of themselves too (the award for the ensemble cast also went to the same film).
The decision to award the best foreign film title to THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY tells us nothing really. Not only have I not seen it, it's not been put forward for Oscar shortlisting anyway, so it won't be winning that one. Their top five foreign films also included the ineligible THE BAND'S VISIT and LUST, CAUTION, but at the same time included both 4 MONTHS, 3 WEEKS AND 2 DAYS and THE COUNTERFEITERS, both of which I mentioned in my last blog entry.
The victory of BODY OF WAR seems to give that film an edge in the documentary arena, but I'm pleased to report that NANKING was in the top five (so at least one of my predictions carries some weight), as was the deserving-but-ignored-by-Oscar IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON.
Two of the best films of the year, ONCE and AWAY FROM HER, featured in the NBR's list of top independent films. I don't see the former appearing in big categories at the Oscars but it might be an outside bet in the song category. AWAY FROM HER, on the other hand, would be good to see in the director category (actress Sarah Polley's directorial debut is superb) but it seems unlikely; it will, however, be nominated in the actress category at the Oscars. I mean it. If not, the world is insane.
You see, way back near the beginning of the year I saw AWAY FROM HER and have been tipping it ever since. Not only is it a great film, it's a great performance in the lead role by Julie Christie as a woman who sees her happy marriage break up when she starts going senile. I am slightly biased because I worship Julie Christie (or The Greatest Actress in the History of the World, to use her full title) but it will still be an outrage if anyone else wins, particularly since it hasn't been a particularly strong year for female leading roles. I think Keira Knightley will get a nod off the back of ATONEMENT's success, but she's no Julie Christie.
There were breakthrough acting awards for JUNO and INTO THE WILD (former hasn't been released here yet; the latter I managed to miss), and Amy Ryan (supporting actress) and Ben Affleck (debut director) got awards for GONE BABY GONE. Sadly I can't comment on this one as, despite great reviews, the UK release has been indefinitely shelved because of similarities to a real-life news story which I'm not going to discuss here. If you've seen a TV or newspaper within the last six months you know what I'm talking about. I would expect all of these films to at least merit nominations at the Oscars.
Other supporting actress nominations could go to the ATONEMENT gang, by which I mean the three actresses that played the same character. Saoirse Ronan's the most deserving but Vanessa Redgrave seems more likely.
The supporting actor award went to Casey Affleck for his brilliant performance in that Jesse James film (the title's too long for me to keep typing it) and, regardless of who else puts in a decent performance this year, he has this one sewn up already. To be honest, I'd be very surprised if a single awards ceremony doesn't honour him. Dead-cert winner.
The best actor award went to George Clooney for the titular role in MICHAEL CLAYTON, another film I managed to miss, but I don't think he'll be collecting the big one in February. He's definitely one of the more likely candidates, but I think he'll have to see off Tommy Lee Jones (for either NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN or IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH, neither of which I've seen, so I'm continuing the stupid prediction theme) or else will find himself up against his friend Brad Pitt who put in one of his best performances in that Jesse James film. Outside bet for a nomination is Emile Hirsch for the aforementioned INTO THE WILD, while it would also be nice to see Gordon Pinsent get a nod for his role opposite Julie Christie in AWAY FROM HER.
Let's see, what have I not mentioned yet... RATATOUILLE picked up best animated feature, not much of a surprise. Adapted screenplay, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN - no surprise (except maybe ATONEMENT had a shout). Original screenplay? No idea. Despite the nods towards JUNO and LARS AND THE REAL GIRL courtesy of the NBR, I think most of the best films I've seen this year have fallen into the adapted category.
Finally, Tim Burton picked up best director for SWEENEY TODD - not seen it, but can't believe he's getting an Oscar having seen some of the films he's not won it for already. Also, I've not forgiven him for PLANET OF THE APES.
No, the director Oscar will go to either Joe Wright (ATONEMENT) or Andrew Dominik (that Jesse James film). I'd have suggested NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN normally too, but I gather the Oscars don't award co-directed films in this category (if memory serves me correctly).
Whatever happens, only three things matter come Oscar night: it's enjoyable, I make a profit at the bookies and Julie Christie gets another award. Anything less is unacceptable!
(I'd close by saying that normal service will be resumed, but as soon as another awards show comes along I'll probably write again, changing my mind on everything.)
Labels: oscars
posted by Alan at 10:48 pm
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home