Not a very exciting title for today's blog entry but it does what it promises. The Oscar nominations were announced today so I guess if I'm going to sit here and talk a load of pish about films all the time I really should make some predictions for the biggest event in the movie calendar.
Last year I waited until just before the ceremony to make my predictions (I did pretty well too) but this year I thought I'd be adventurous and make my predictions nice and early. Well, not so early that I didn't wait for the nominations to be announced, but you get my drift. Also, I couldn't really wait until just before the ceremony as I'll be attending a couple of film festivals in the lead up to it, so I probably won't have time. But let's just ignore that and pretend it's because I'm adventurous. Let the predicting commence.
BEST FILM
The first major upset seems to have occurred before the ceremony has even taken place. The bookies made this the odds-on favourite (or at least the bookies I checked with did) before hand to win the Best Film category - and it hasn't even been nominated. That's good news if you're a contrary sod like me and refuse to bet on the favourites. Not so much if you're a sensible and conservative person who doesn't bet at all. (Standard disclaimer: gambling is wrong. Don't do it, kids!)
That paves the way for THE DEPARTED if this is finally to be Scorsese's year, but then again every time Scorsese has a film nominated we say it's going to be his year and as yet it hasn't been. The other favourite here is BABEL, which has the added advantage of having already scooped the Golden Globe award for best film. I haven't actually seen LETTERS FRMO IWO JIMA so I can't comment on it (but I'll be seeing it at one of the aforementioned festivals) but then again I haven't seen THE DEPARTED either. Maybe THE DEPARTED will win just for being a remake that isn't totally crap.
I think we can completely discount THE QUEEN, good though it certainly is (see
my recent cinema marathon for details) which just leaves
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE. After last year's last minute rush of popularity for CRASH, I wouldn't completely rule out LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE doing the same again. It's a feelgood film, it's popular, it's an ensemble piece (always popular with actors, who make up a large part of the vote) and it was just named Best Picture by the Producers' Guild of America.
That two quid I stuck on while it was still 16 to 1 is maybe a bit hopeful though. One thing that does count against it is that it's a comedy, and Oscar voters are usually more inclined to go with worthier (aka: miserable) material. How many comedies can you name that have won big awards at the Oscars? Exactly.
Should win: LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Will win: THE DEPARTED
DIRECTOR
Will it be Scorsese's year then? See above. The ironic thing is that he's once more up against Clint Eastwood and the last time these two went head to head Mr Eastwood won out with MILLION DOLLAR BABY ahead of Marty's THE AVIATOR. History can repeat itself too; when Eastwood picked up his Oscar for the aforementioned drama, Hilary Swank picked up Best Actress for the same film, beating off competition from Annette Bening, who she'd beaten the first time she'd won an Oscar too.
I reckon Scorsese is more likely out of the two, but I'd say that Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu (for BABEL) probably has about the same chance as Eastwood. His two previous collaborations with the same screenwriter were critically acclaimed too, so perhaps the voters may think he's due some recognition too.
As mentioned above, I've not seen LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA or THE DEPARTED so I can't really comment on them; I've not seen UNITED 93 either, but as critically lauded as it is, I think you still have to see Paul Greengrass as an outsider in the category. Stephen Frears (for THE QUEEN) also did a grand job but I think will be joining his fellow Brit in the outsider stakes. I guess having only seen two of them it's a bit silly me making a prediction, but I guess I have to, so here goes.
Should win: Paul Greengrass (Yeah, I know, but I really liked his BLOODY SUNDAY film though)
Will win: Martin Scorsese
ACTRESS
Helen Mirren is sweeping the boards for her portrayal of THE QUEEN so don't expect any different here. That's especially true since two things the Oscars love are people making themselves uglier and people doing impressions of other people, and Mirren does both. As good as Mirren is though, I'd prefer Penelope Cruz to get it (the award, I mean... snigger) for her terrific performance in Pedro Almodovar's VOLVER.
If anyone can run Mirren close however, it'll be Meryl Streep. I've not seen THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA (it looked too much like a chick-flick) but given that it's her 14th nomination (yes, that is a record) but only won twice she's probably due another. Kate Winslet and Judi Dench are in my opinion outsiders, although not as much as Cruz is, according to the bookies. Then again I've not seen Winslet's or Dench's performances so what good is my opinion?
Should win: Penelope Cruz
Will win: Helen Mirren
ACTOR
As mentioned above, the Oscars love a good impressionist. That, combined with the critical praise and awards already heaped on Forest Whitaker for his portrayal of General Idi Amin, will be enough to see him sweep the competition aside.
The closest competitor he'll have is Peter O'Toole, who is brilliant in VENUS but, as legendary as he is, he did just recently receive a lifetime achievement award so the voters probably don't feel quite so obliged to vote for him this time round, which is a shame.
I've yet to see HALF NELSON (Ryan Gosling) or BLOOD DIAMOND (Leo) so that'll be two more that I won't comment on, but I don't expect either of them to trouble the final placings anyway. I haven't seen Will Smith's turn in THE PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS yet either, but having seen the trailer for it I'm already convinced that it is a cynical attempt to bag him an Oscar and I'm going to ignore it completely.
Should win: Peter O'Toole
Will win: Forest Whitaker
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikucki are both nominated for BABEL and both are in with a shout since the former made herself less glamorous and the latter portrayed a character with a disability - both traits are regular Oscar-baiters. Cate Blanchett joins her fellow BABEL cast members, although her nomination has been picked up for NOTES ON A SCANDAL. I haven't seen that one yet but the two BABEL actresses do a good job.
Jennifer Hudson has already been recognised for her role in DREAMGIRLS (another that I've not seen, I'm afraid) so is probably the favourite, but Abigail Breslin is also captivating in her role in LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE. Her age probably counts against her (she'd be the youngest ever winner) but she's appeared in a few high-profile films and the Academy may wish to honour the film in some other way if they're going to snub it in the Best Film category.
I'm going to go out on a limb here.
Should win: Abigail Breslin
Will win: Adriana Barraza
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Since he appeared in the crap pop group Marky Mark and the Funky Bunch, I've never been able to take Mark Wahlberg seriously; since he appeared in the celluloid shower of pish that was the
PLANET OF THE APES remake I can't even look at him without wanting to punch him. So I'm going to gloss over his nomination for THE DEPARTED. And I've not seen it.
Nor have I seen BLOOD DIAMOND (Djimon Hounsou), DREAMGIRLS (Eddie Murphy - yes, seriously) or LITTLE CHILDREN (Jackie Earle Haley). In fact, I guess I'm going to be a bit rubbish at predicting this one since LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE is the only one I've seen. Alan Arkin is very good in it though, and everyone likes him.
I'm going to show my support here for Jackie Earle Haley though. It's not that I think he'll win (Oscar win for playing a paedophile? Possibly too edgy for the Academy) but, as a child, he appeared in the wonderful so-bad-it's-great DAMNATION ALLEY and also in my favourite episode of the PLANET OF THE APES television series.
Should win: Jackie Earle Haley
Will win: Alan Arkin
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Big upset here is that neither VOLVER nor Mel Gibson's
APOCALYPTO is included. The other upset, though not as surprising, is that I've only seen one of the nominations. However, since that one nomination is PAN'S LABYRINTH, and since it's already been getting critical raves, and since it's an absolute bloody masterpiece, that'll do me.
Should win: PAN'S LABYRINTH
Will win: PAN'S LABYRINTH
ANIMATED FILM
I've not seen any of the nominations - CARS got mediocre reviews but is by Pixar; HAPPY FEET looked pish but seemed to be very popular; MONSTER HOUSE got good reviews but is a genre film and the Academy don't like them.
My rather uneducated opinion?
Should win: MONSTER HOUSE
Will win: HAPPY FEET
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The only film in this category I've seen is
CHILDREN OF MEN, and frankly it was a puddle of urine. I plan on seeing BORAT this weekend but I refuse to believe that's the kind of film that will receive an Oscar for anything.
Should win: I'm not even going to try.
Will win: THE DEPARTED
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I've not seen LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA; BABEL disappears up its own arse on several occasions but is clever enough (or thinks it is) to appeal to the voters; LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE and THE QUEEN both fall into the category of films that are probably going to miss out on the bigger awards so might get honoured with this one; PAN'S LABYRINTH is foreign and fantasy-related so will probably be unfairly ignored.
Should win: PAN'S LABYRINTH
Will win: BABEL
DOCUMENTARY
Of the two I've seen,
AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH is the highest profile and a tremendously important movie. Then again,
MY COUNTRY, MY COUNTRY is also a powerful piece of filmmaking and may appeal to a few more Bush fans than the former; but only a few.
Should win: AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
Will win: MY COUNTRY, MY COUNTRY
AND THE REST...
We're down into the categories I've not got a clue about now, or else don't actually care. No idea about the two music categories, or the various short film categories either.
Visual effects? The only one I've seen is
SUPERMAN RETURNS but since I really liked it, let's go for that.
Cinematography and art direction, I'd have to go with THE PRESTIGE for both of them, if only because it was my favourite film of the year and these are its only two nominations.
Costume design? Don't really know, don't really care, but since THE CURSE OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER looked pretty colourful from the pictures I've seen (I'll be going to a festival screening just before the Oscars) let's go with that.
Sound mixing and sound editing? Let's go with APOCALYPTO because frankly it deserves to win for something.
Film editing... the action sequences in CHILDREN OF MEN might be enough to swing it but I reckon this will be UNITED 93's token recognition.
All of which brings my predictions to a close. Please feel free to come back here after the event and either abuse me for how far wrong I was or else marvel at how on the money I was. I guess we'll find out which one next month.
Before I go though I have to point out that the most deserved award of the night has already been settled. Yes, the main man
Ennio Morricone is to be given a lifetime achievement award and I struggle to think of anyone working in the movie business today who deserves one more. Well done that man.
Labels: oscars